For decades, the Democratic Party could count on the majority of Jewish Americans to back Democrats at the ballot box. As Orthodox Jews have shifted rightward in recent years, with 75% of them supporting Republicans over the party’s harder-line foreign policy in the Middle East, skepticism of the Iran nuclear deal and support for vouchers for private schools, 7 in 10 American Jews have remained true blue, according to the Pew Research Center.
But Hamas’ brutal attack on Israel last Oct. 7, in which 1,200 Jews were slaughtered and some 250 were taken hostage, created a “before” and “after” dichotomy in the lives of Jews across the globe. Israel launched military strikes on Gaza to free the hostages and eradicate Hamas. This war of self-defense by a state under siege has claimed the lives of thousands of Palestinians, which in turn has been used to set off waves of antisemitism and anti-Israel protests, notably on American college campuses and among the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
American Jews supported President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump by a margin of 61% to 23%, according to the American Jewish Committee’s annual Survey of American Jewish Opinion. (The poll was taken in March and April, before Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden on the ticket.) But in the same survey, 85% of American Jewish adults said it’s important for the U.S. government to support Israel in the aftermath of Oct. 7, and 57% reported feeling more connected to Israel or to their Jewish identity since the attack. That’s a vulnerability for Harris if her policy toward Israel or attitude toward Jewish Americans is perceived as weak.
At the Democratic National Convention this week in Chicago, prominent Jews have taken the stage. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, the highest-ranking Jewish politician in the nation, denounced Trump for peddling antisemitic stereotypes and dining with a white supremacist at Mar-a-Lago. Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff, who is Jewish, talked about going to Hebrew school in his youth and praised Harris for respecting his faith, going to synagogue with him on holidays and urging him to take on the fight against antisemitism, especially after Oct. 7. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who describes himself as a Conservative Jew, gave a fiery speech calling the Democratic Party the party of “real freedom.”
It’s all well and good to showcase Jewish Democrats, but the party owes voters an answer to a pressing question: Will Harris embrace Biden’s mostly pro-Israel record, or will she succumb to radical and antisemitic voices in the party?
One could argue that the first test came when Harris chose progressive Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate over Shapiro, the other finalist for the job. There were plenty of reasons to pick Walz, but some on the left waged a scurrilous antisemitic smear campaign against Shapiro, which the Harris campaign denounced but the candidate herself has yet to publicly repudiate. In an interview this week with the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Shapiro insisted “antisemitism played no role” in his not being picked.
To be sure, the right has flirted with antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiments disguised as “America First,” from Trump’s own use of unflattering tropes about Jews – which included blasting Shapiro last night as “the highly overrated Jewish governor” – to openly antisemitic comments by right-wing commentators Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson. But there’s also no denying a recent wave of antisemitism that has emanated from the extreme left, including a virulently anti-Israel “Squad” of progressive Democrats: Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York (who was defeated in a June primary by a pro-Israel centrist Democrat) and others.
Biden is a self-declared Zionist who can point to a 50-year record of supporting Israel, harking back to meetings with Golda Meir and other Israeli pioneers. Harris’ record on Israel is relatively thin in comparison. In March, she rebuked Israel for not doing enough to ease a “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza when she called for a cease-fire and hostage release, rankling many Jews. Her absence from the U.S. Capitol during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress last month was used by critics to question the vice president’s commitment to Israel, though she did meet with Netanyahu separately, calling their conversation “frank and constructive.”
Over the last two decades, pundits have periodically wondered if there would be a shift in the overall Jewish vote toward Republicans, which has never materialized. However, a record level of antisemitism in America following the war in Gaza has the potential to reorder political allegiances. As many Jewish Americans feel politically homeless or abandoned by those we thought were our allies, we are rethinking our alliances.
If Democrats don’t demonstrate their support for Israel and American Jews, they’ll have a lot to worry about in the key swing states.
Pennsylvania, a state where Biden mustered an 81,000-vote victory in 2020, is the swing state with the most Jewish voters: nearly 434,000. There are 141,000 Jews in Georgia, where Biden eked out a win by just 12,000 votes. Arizona is home to 124,000 Jews and an even smaller 11,000-vote win for Biden. And don’t discount Wisconsin with its tiny population of 33,000 Jews; Biden picked up the Badger State by just 19,000 votes.
With antisemitism in the U.S. on the rise, according to research by the Anti-Defamation League, American Jews are feeling unsettled – and political fault lines may be shifting. A poll commissioned by the Orthodox Union released Aug. 2 showed a startling result: Pennsylvania’s Jewish vote was closely split 49% to 42% between Harris and Trump – a departure from the Democrats’ historical hold on Jewish voters.
Polling shows Trump is on track to win more Latino voters than any Republican in history, and that young Black voters’ support for Biden was weak, leaving an open question of whether Harris can win them back.
In an election season where long-standing political shibboleths are cracking, Democrats don’t have the luxury of taking Jewish voters for granted.
Nathan Diament is the executive director of public policy for the Union of Orthodox Jewish Congregations of America.
Click here to read Nathan’s op-ed as published in U.S. News and World Report on 08/22/2024